June 12, 2025: More Questions than answers
Saturday, race fans got a rematch in the Belmont Stakes between the Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty and the victor of the Preakness, Journalism. The result was a replay of the Kentucky Derby, with a couple of differences. Instead of seeing that flashy late kick from Journalism, we saw Sovereignty display a late acceleration. Journalism got tired, but it wasn’t due to a sloppy track like that found at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
The difference in energy appears to be the five-weeks off Sovereignty received by skipping the Preakness, and the less time off Journalism got by running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. So, we are pondering, if the extra time off resulted in the win, does this outcome support the argument of the Triple Crown races needing to be spread out, like a month apart? A noted decline in viewers of the Preakness and Belmont when a Triple Crown is not on the line would seem to support a change. Then again, the racing regulars are going to watch the races no matter, so, does a Triple Crown attempt really bring in new fans for the long haul?
While we are pondering changes to the schedule, some thought is given about the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes, when run at Belmont Park. By having the race at Saratoga these past two years, the distance had to be a mile and a quarter. We got to thinking, how many races do we see that are run over a mile and a quarter on dirt throughout the year, let alone a mile and a half? With the “classic” distance being a mile and a quarter, why not stick to it?
The three-year-old crop has increasing distances in the races prior to the Kentucky Derby with it’s mile and a quarter. Typically, we find mile and a 1/16th in the prep races run two months out, then topping out at a mile and a 1/8th a month before. So, wouldn’t a progression to a mile and a quarter for the Triple Crown races make sense, instead of upping it another quarter mile in the Belmont, making it a distance never to be run again?
There’s much to think about as we reflect on the 2025 Triple Crown races, but we can’t get the past the fact that changes were made to get to this point, otherwise the sport would still be having the majority of dirt races at distances greater than a mile and half, as done in the 19th century.
June 5, 2025: A Match Race?
Here it is, the third-leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes. Last year, it came as a cultural shock to the Saratoga Race Course faithful, how NYRA seemed to just plop down the old Belmont facility over the current Saratoga one. Although, causing the locals some anxiety as to whether the track they know and love would return, the fact that their favorite track would be again holding a leg of the Triple Crown is remedy enough.
So, with the initial move out of the way, we can focus on handicapping the great card given us. After the Kentucky Derby slop, we find ourselves zeroing-in on track surface. What race fans know from watching races all over the country is that each track’s surface is different, therefore, rain will have differing impacts.
The Saratoga area has been dealing with rain most days of the spring, so, the horses have been training over a rain-influenced surface, and comments from the trainers indicate their charges have enjoyed the cooler temperatures found with the rainy days. The good news is the area has had several dry days during the preceding week, so, the rain expected Friday night into Saturday morning should cause no drainage issues. The worse thing will be a lot of soggy fans.
Even though the Belmont Stakes is being advertised as a match race between the two winners of the previous legs of the Triple Crown, we feel there could be a chance those two riders will be so focused on each other, as they tend to ride their respective charges towards the rail early, some other jockey will go to the lead, set easy fractions, and take the race.
With this chance in mind, why use our betting dollars on the favorites? We want to look at the other entries, especially the ones providing better odds. Of course, you can mix long-shots with the two favorites, or just do simple WPS bets on some horses going off at better odds.
So, by thinking of track conditions, and how horses running in each of the stakes on Saturday did in their training on similar surfaces, and the value offered by horses going off at higher odds in each stakes, you may just have a very profitable day!
May 29, 2025: Class
Sometimes, even in the middle of the Triple Crown races, an event occurs that makes us take a step back, and put the sport in a context we rarely think about. Such an event happened this passed Sunday, when horse racing found out, in his own words, that trainer Christophe Clement had passed away.
Thinking about the horses he placed on the track for race fans to cheer, one thing came to mind; they all seemed to be healthy and ready. We remember Tonalist, who won the Belmont Stakes, and how there wasn’t crazed boasting at the result, just unassuming appreciation for what the horse accomplished.
However, the performance we remember most often was a loss. It was the two-time turf champion, Gio Ponti losing in the Breeders’ Cup Classic against the Queen of SoCal, Zenyatta. Even though, the horse was recognized to be the best turf runner at that time, trainer Clement decided to run him in the Classic. You might wonder why the trainer would enter his horse in the Classic, instead of the BC Turf. If any trainer knew turf runners, it was Clement, and the fact that the Classic was run on the synthetic surface at Hollywood Park that year makes the decision clear. That’s confidence in your work, not arrogance.
He may be remember as a turf horse trainer for all the successes his horses had on that surface, but there really is only one word to describe the man: class. In a sport where class is never applied to humans, it is this attribute we will miss the most because of its rarity. He displayed it in his final words to us: “Enjoy Life Every Single Day.”
Rest in peace, and thank you.
May 22, 2025: The Belmont Match Race?
For a “forgotten” race, as we were referring last week as the Preakness Stakes being, it turned out to provide one of the most dramatic performances ever seen in the second-leg of the Triple Crown.
For most race fans, we are expecting a horse who is boxed in, with horses to the front and side, to check after being denied an opening, no matter how small of an opening. We are aware that it’s a jockey’s job to put his charge in a position to win; however, when have you seen such an action by a jockey in a Triple Crown race?
By running the race at the rail, as jockey Respoli typically does with Journalism, he risks not putting his horse in a position to win. There is the hope the tiring horses in front will lug out creating an opening to ride the rail to the finish. Calvin Borel made a career doing so. However, if this opportunity doesn’t present itself, then we usually see the jockey swing the horse around the horses to the outside, thereby, presenting a clear way many paths wide to the finish.
Respoli must have seen how far ahead Gosger was, so, in an almost panicked move rode Journalism as if he was, as some analysts described, a bull. Unbelievable stuff. Now, the race analysts may focus solely upon the scrum between Goal Oriented and Journalism, but what made the performance so outstanding was the horse’s lightening-like late kick to make up that many lengths in so short a distance, especially after being in a fight!
In the Kentucky Derby, the eventual winner, Sovereignty came on late, but he appeared to just grind his way to the finish on a very tiring sloppy track. There was no such flash of speed; just a show of great stamina.
Let’s hope we see these two champions again in the Belmont Stakes, not because we want to see a bull charging down the stretch. We would like to see two different talents compete. Who would win, the horse with great stamina, or the horse with the incredible late kick?
May 15, 2025: Remember The Preakness!
It may seem ironic that we spend all these months with Kentucky Derby preps, but with only two-weeks between that race and the Preakness, we have to use the Kentucky Derby preps for all legs of the Triple Crown.
Then there’s the handicapping headache of the new horses entered in the Preakness. Add to that issue and we don’t even have the winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby entered into the Preakness, thereby, there won’t be a Triple Crown on the line.
We can’t blame Sovereignty’s trainer Bill Mott for not racing him in the second-leg of the Triple Crown. He certainly knows how to train, and if thinks the horse is more suited to the Belmont Stakes, who are we to argue? Besides the owner has hundreds of expensive horses running in the major stakes throughout the world, so, what’s the importance of a Triple Crown to such an operation?
Unless the distance between the races comprising the Triple Crown changes, we are always going to face the Preakness being the forgotten leg. We won’t forget it though; how can we pass up a Grade 1 for the three-year-old crop? Afterall, we have to get to know the new faces!
May 8, 2025: Onward!
n keeping with the handicapping methods employed throughout the Kentucky Derby prep season, we were very interested in the post-race comments. The jockeys had a built-in excuse with the sloppy track, but many, while mentioning it, did not exclusively use it. As you would expect with a large field, there was a mashup at the break to comment on too.
So, we looked at the race replay several times, to see if the jockey comments matched what actually happened out there. What we saw was far worse, then the comments made. The track was tiring to an extreme. We could note that observation when awaiting Journalism to make a flashy acceleration in the stretch. Instead, we saw a very tired favorite give way to the grinding Sovereignty.
Now, we didn’t expect the winner to go into another gear down the stretch. He really showed himself to be a grinding type in his previous races. Of course, there are grinders, and there are grinders. Sovereignty has one gear, but it allows him to have the stamina needed at the end of a distance race. A stamina he showed in winning.
The only horse showing a flash of speed in the stretch was Baeza. Looking at the replay, you’ll see him saving up energy, but so did Sovereignty and Journalism. So, why did Baeza have this end-of-race energy displayed. It could be because he didn’t mind the slop as much as the others.
Why is it important to review the race and the runners? Well, the Triple Crown is made up of three long-distance races. The three top finishers needed that fast first part of the race to close into. What happens if the Preakness is on a dry track? Will the speedy types have more energy, because they won’t be fighting a tiring wet surface?
Can speed hold up until the finish then? Will the closers have flashy speed at the end to catch them? These are all questions we’ll need to investigate in the next two legs of the Triple Crown. So, we’ll keep reading the comments in our quest for answers.
May 1, 2025: READY!
Well, we’ve done everything possible to get to know this three-year-old crop. We started watching them as two-year-olds in all those Kentucky Derby points races. Looking back on those fields, it is interesting noting how many made it to the first Saturday in May. Sure, some are in the field for the big race, and yet, they did so through inconsistent performances. We guess such inconsistency is expected, since they are still growing and learning how to be race horses.
So, we are left with many of the horses entered for reasons like their owners wanted to be there, or their trainers wanted them to run in it as a prep for other Triple Crown races. As a result of these numerous reasons, our task since those final Kentucky Derby preps became one of filtering the horses who are legitimate contenders.
We read and listened to the post-Derby prep race comments from the connections. We heard a lot of excuses, when horses didn’t perform up to expectations. We listened to comments after the morning workouts too, not only from the riders and trainers, but the experts. Again, we needed to filter the comments. Afterall, how many of the experts pick some long shot, whereby, if they are miraculously correct, they will look like a genius for the rest of their lives. And if they are wrong? Whose going to remember their picks?
We even glanced at some of the pedigrees, which is a very old-school way of handicapping the race. We couldn’t find fault with the pedigree of favored Journalism. A son of Curlin hasn’t won the race, so, why not now? One pedigree that proved interesting was that of Tiztastic. Why? The horse is inbred to eight horses, including Tapit; Pulpit; Tap Your Heels; A.P. Indy; Preach; Unbridled; Ruby Slippers; and Fappiano. These names probably make up an entire wall of plaques at the National Racing Hall of Fame.
If you haven’t come up with an opinion by now after all this watching and reading, please don’t tape the entries to a wall and throw a dart at them. Instead, look over the horses. You don’t have to pick the winner. Throw some funds to place and show horses with higher-odds than the favorites. Go with your gut and pick horses to win that jump out at you. No, your gut won’t give you reasons like your mind will, but sometimes it just feels right.
April 24, 2025: The Most Important Step?
So, we have been watching the morning workouts, and listening to the comments afterwards. Of course, no one has come out and said their horse stinks. With such optimism abounding, we don’t need to dig too deep for our next move though.
A twenty-horse field elevates the importance of post position. Horses with inside posts are going to have to make a clean break to avoid every other horse going to the inside after the gates open. One false move, and horse and rider will be looking at the backs of their nineteen competitors. Even if they are conserving energy running so far behind, any move down the stretch will mean going way wide, and going wide means going a longer distance.
The horses with far outside posts have to run fast at the beginning of the race to gain a good spot, one not too wide. Then they will have to throttle down until the stretch. This means they need the ability to change speeds. How many of these lightly raced three-year-olds have that ability? Not many.
So, we look at the horses in the middle posts. We can easily filter these runners too. While horse having early speed can win the race, it all depends if they are challenged by the other horses who need to lead. The result is always a speed duel that will be unsustainable in a mile and quarter effort.
Now, it’s the horses that have proven to rate, who show to be most successful. An added filter would be having shown this ability against good fields. Looking over the seemingly endless Kentucky Derby prep races, you’ll find several preps producing winners far and above the other preps. The Santa Anita Derby and the Florida Derby stand out in modern times.
Do you see where we are going with our handicapping? Remember, our objective is not singling a winner, but finding solid contenders.
April 17, 2025: Now what do we do?
This Kentucky Derby prep season, we have been looking at the comments made by the various connections after each race. Now that the preps are finished, do we still look at the comments made by the connections having entries?
If you were to do so, you probably noticed how much the comments sound alike: “working lights out!’ or something similar. Most of it seems like hype. So, where do we look to get genuine feedback as to how the entries are doing?
The past performances aren’t much help at this point because the results are what they are. We have a group of lightly raced equines, some inconsistent runners, and a couple of horses who appear in good form.
We know the favorites, so, we are going to look closely at those with inconsistent form, and probably not consider the green runners. One way to evaluate how the inconsistent runners are doing is watching their workouts over the Churchill Downs course. Basically, do they like the track surface?
If a horse has to carry their track with them, it will truly show in their workouts. So, we watch and learn.
April 10. 2025: The Equine Giant Killer
Looking back to last fall, it seemed like the Bob Baffert stable was not only going to dominant the Kentucky Derby prep races in 2025, but could possibly have a large percentage of entries in the race. What a difference several months can make.
The favorite in last Saturday’s running of the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism had already beaten a trio of Baff runners in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, and followed that performance with another victory against another Baff trio in the San Felipe.
Would the Santa Anita Derby outcome be any different? Baff entered his two-year-old champion from last year, Citizen Bull. Baffert also had the promising Barnes entered.
The result was unchanged, as Journalism gave the Baffert barn a devastating blow by leaving Citizen Bull and Barnes up the track.
What was most impressive about the victory was Journalism’s ability to overcome a difficult journey. It was a tightly packed group of five runners, leaving the horse stuck at the rail and in the back. Somehow his seasoning came through and he showed a powerful kick at the end.
With such a performance, he will be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Does that mean, he’s a certain winner? With a crazy twenty-horse field expected for the race, there will be a large number of unpolished runners, who can cause some long-shot to have a lucky trip and win the race. However, Journalism probably learned a great deal from the adversity he faced in the Santa Anita Derby, which will make him the deserving favorite.
April 3, 2025: Are they ripe yet?
It should be pretty apparent to us now as to why the Kentucky Derby prep race favorites faulter after a victory in a prior prep. The trainers hope that after a victory, their young colt has finally figured out what this racing stuff is all about.
Instead, the opposite occurs, where results indicate inconsistent form versus a horse rounding into good form. It is this inconsistency that makes handicapping a race like the Kentucky Derby so difficult. On any given day, a colt could throw in a great performance, or just revert back to being a green colt.
It is also the reason why race fans are looking forward to this year’s edition of the Santa Anita Derby. The two standouts from the three-year-old crop are going head-to-head, Journalism and Citizen Bull. Both colts have shown consistent form going from two to three. It tells us, they know their trade.
Will the match-up prove too taxing however? We think not, because both have a number of races under their respective girths, and their running styles don’t indicate any speed duels early in the race. Therefore, we can expect a classic stretch battle, and what race fan doesn’t love that.
March 20, 2025: The Coach
Why have we forgotten D. Wayne Lukas? Afterall, he was winning Triple Crown races by the handfuls before Baffert became Baffert and Todd and Chad were only dreaming about them.
We ask this question because his horse, American Promise won the Virginia Derby last weekend and gained enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby. His post-race comments said it all, as he mentioned how the horse was still growing since his first start back in July of 2024. Given the outcome of the race, we guess he has adjusted to his adult frame.
Interestingly enough, the favorite in the race was Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car at 4-5. Now, why would that horse get such low odds? He did win the Sunland Derby earlier in the year, but just by a hair to Cadera, who was trained by, you guessed it, D. Wayne Lukas.
Maybe, the difference in odds between Getaway Car and the eventual winner could have been the result of fans betting the big-name jockeys in these prep races, while Lukas tends to use the workmen type. In this case, Nik Juarez was the winning jockey. Don’t recognize the name? Most race fans probably don’t, but Juarez has won his share of races, but not on the level of Kentucky Derby preps.
So, our lesson from this story is two-fold. First, don’t be seduced by the big-name jockeys riding in the prep races. Secondly, don’t ever count out D. Wayne Lukas.
March 13, 2025: Who Said What?
A great example of why we chose to read the comments by the winning connections of horses on the Kentucky Derby trail was found with the results of the Tampa Bay Derby.
Before the race, trainer Brain Lynch spoke of the eventually winner Owen Almighty being better suited to shorter distance races. He even mentioned pointing the horse to the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby card.
After the race, he said he preferred the Pat Day Mile even though his charge won at the mile and 1/16th Tampa Bay Derby. He did leave the door open a crack by admitting the connections will have to discuss it. It was pretty clear from the ownership comments after the race, that the Kentucky Derby was where the horse will run next.
Hmmm. Whose words do we put more credence in, ownership, or trainer, Now, we can’t blame the ownership for stating the intention before it was “discussed”. A horse can only run in a race restricted to three-year-old once in their lives.
For us, we will cautiously wait and see before making Owen Almighty a Kentucky Derby contender.
March 6, 2025: Around and Around They Go...
To us, the most interesting Kentucky Derby prep race last weekend was the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Baff had three of the field entered including the undefeated Barnes. As we watched, it seemed that the favored Barnes was given a hand ride out on the lead.
Even when challenged by the eventually winner, Journalism, he didn’t show much of an answer. Was he tired? Was he injured? Was he being saved for the SA Derby? No answers were found in the post-race comments.
To the victors go the comments, and Journalism deserved such praise after he beat yet another field having three Baffert runners. He previously won the Los Alamitos Futurity back in December. In that effort he defeated Gaming, Getaway Car, and Mellencamp.
Will the bunch of them meet again soon, or will they go their separate ways being entered in different final Kentucky Derby preps? Stay tuned. If it sounds like a soap opera along the lines of “How the Baffs Turn”, then all the better.
February 27, 2025: Who was that?
If you have been following these posts in recent weeks, then you know how we are watching the Kentucky Derby prep races in order to get familiar with the three-year-old crop.
This past weekend, there was an interesting result in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. We didn’t handicap the race, just electing to watch it. So, it was surprising, in a field full of the big barns, with the top trainers and jockeys, that a less well-known outfit had their horse, Coal Battle win it.
The horse responded well to the commands jockey Juan Vargas gave. The team breaking from the one post sat back as fast fractions were set up front. Then they moved to the outside, coming out of the far turn. The tiring leaders at that point presented little challenge, and the connections got their second win of the meet and garnered enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby.
Reading the comments by the connections afterward, they were happy, but seemingly humble. After all, trainer Lonnie Briley and jockey Juan Vargas aren’t exactly the names you’d expect to see giving comments after a Kentucky Derby prep stakes.
So, does the result put them into the national spotlight? Maybe briefly, because the favorite was charging down the stretch looking like he would relish a longer distanced race. At the same time, maybe Coal Battle was being geared down, or was he running on reduced energy?
As with all these results on the Derby trail, we won’t know until the next race is run.
February 20, 2025: Finishing Well
You may have skipped over the Sunland Park Derby last weekend, well, because the race hasn’t produce a Kentucky Derby notable probably since Mine That Bird. If you did watch the race, you were treated to a terrific photo finish.
Bob Baffert’s fourth-stringer, Getaway Car went to the lead as he prefers, and was caught at the quarter pole by D. Wayne Lukas trainee, Caldera. One would think at that point in the race, Getaway Car would fade. However, just the opposite occurred, and he came back to challenge Caldera.
As the two battled to the finish line, the large size of Caldera blocked any view of Getaway Car. He is definitely one-long legged equine. The photo showed Getaway winning by the narrowest of margins. What impressed us most about his effort was answering the challenge of Caldera. Most three-year-olds at this early stage of the year don’t respond in such a fashion.
We can’t wait to see these two again. One thing we took note of though, for our handicapping, was the purchase price of each horse. Getaway Car was purchased for $232,800 and Caldera for $85,360. We bring these prices up because many times with lightly raced horses, we determine quality by the price. For example, last year Seirra Leone went for approximately $2 million. He eventually paid off with that big win in the BC Classic.
Still, we’re going to stick to the pedigrees to assess quality, and enjoy the preps we are given.
February 13, 2025: Royal Flush
Oh, to be Bob Baffert now that Derby prep season is here. Baff has to be the envy of trainers having three-year-old prospects. We looked through the comments of other trainers, and no matter how hard they try to promote their Derby prospects, their lineups can’t compare.
Of course, there are difficulties with having so many prospects in your barn. Where do you race them all? As of right now, he is pointing Getaway to the upcoming Sunland Derby. All this three-year-old did was finish behind Baff’s other stars, Citizen Bull and Gaming in the BC Juvenile, with a fourth-place finish.
We saw how well Citizen Bull did in his 2025 debut and Barnes’ win in the San Vincente. We have to believe with those performances, other trainers are relieved Baff didn’t send any to Gulfstream Park for their three-year-old stakes series. Ditto for Fair Grounds and Aqueduct.
Before we hand the barn the three-year-old championship title, we should remember the Kentucky Derby will still have a twenty-horse field, and as we have seen in recent years, a field that size is fill with obstacles Still, we think it’s pretty cool having Baff showing off after being excluded from the race for years.
February 6, 2025: Lookin' Good So Far
So, what did we learn about the three-year-olds from last weekend’s two stakes for the crop? The two-year-old champ, Citizen Bull came back in a three-year-old debut without losing a step in the Bob Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. According to his jockey, Martin Garcia, he had “plenty of horse left.” This end-of-the-race energy is just what any connections pointing to the Triple Crown want to see, as the distances get longer as the prep races progress towards the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby.
In the other stakes, The Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Burnham Square “overcame a lot of adversity” according to his Jockey Edgar Zayas. “He just doesn’t get tired” was the other comment we latched onto for the same reason mentioned above with Citizen Bull.
The results of these two races have us expecting the two colts to love the distances of their next starts. This coming weekend, we have two more stakes for the three-year-olds, The Risen Star and The Sunland Derby. We will await the after-race comments from the connections in those races, as we get familiarized with the crop.
January 30, 2025: Getting to Know Them
Now that January racing is out of the way, the “real” three-year-old stakes start rolling. Typically in February, the two-year-old stars from last year make their three-year-old debuts. Those are the horses we want to focus our handicapping on because we have some racing history to help us.
We like to see if they have grown as expected, if only to judge if they are ready to run at a high-level each month now through June and the Triple Crown series of races. It’s more important than ever for us to listen to their trainers, especially after a less than stellar 2025 debut. In those cases, you’ll probably hear how they needed to get a race under their girths after the months of vacation.
Of course, trainers and jockeys will tend to cover up any real concern if their charges don’t come out of the box swinging. So, it’s up to us to watch these races closely to read between the lines. Overall, it will be fun to get to know the crop better over this time frame, and with the questions of how they will performance at age three being answered along the way.
January 23, 2025: Old TImers' Day?
This weekend, we get the first BIG race day of 2025 with the Pegasus World Cup Invitational and Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Grade 1 stakes on tap. What makes this day of seven-Graded Stakes different from the others on the racing calendar is each one is for the older horses.
Of course, age discrimination is a troubling issue for humans, but for the equine athletes, race fans can’t help but delight in seeing some of our favorites still on the track. How can you say the nine-year-old Rockemperor doesn’t deserve our handicapping attention?
Just in case your week would not be complete without a three-year-old stakes, there’s the Southwest at Oaklawn Park too. Don’t worry you’ll miss it, because of the Gulfstream Park line-up of stakes, there is probably enough time between those races to roam elsewhere for a bit. And, if you don’t mind the older runners, the San Pasqual is scheduled at Santa Anita.
Our only problem with this many quality races is being disciplined in our handicapping. Do we really want to go crazy and wager on each one of them? Such a thing can happen when we’ve gone so long without such a day of racing.
Then again, if you don’t care because it is January and we’re probably stuck inside, go for it.
January 16, 2025: Community
As we look forward to a weekend with some interesting stakes to handicapping, like the featured LeComte for the three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds, we take a step back.
Race tracks are communities onto themselves, and as we have seen in Southern California these past weeks, they are also integral parts of larger communities.
Many of the Santa Anita community have had to evacuate, and in many cases have lost their homes to the horrific wildfires in Southern California. Many race fans have experienced first-hand the lost, while most of us have tried to assist from afar.
As we watch the races this weekend, maybe our good fortune at being safe in our homes will have us setting aside a part of our bankrolls intended for our handicapping, and use the funds to help. Afterall, it could be said the race fans are a far-reaching community that includes tracks everywhere.
January 9, 2025: So, What Do We Do?
Last week, we were whining about all the Kentucky Derby hype, given that it is just one race. However, ignoring all the hype doesn’t mean we ignore the so-called prep races. How do we not ignore the races?
We can handicap them like we do the two-year-old stakes later in the year. There are three reasons why we take this approach:
1. Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.
2. Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.
3. Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.
Alright, we are being silly, but the point we are trying to make is that there isn’t much to go on when using past performances in our handicapping. There might be successes noted during the crop’s two-year-old season, but will that success transfer to year three?
When handicapping two-year-old MSWs, we more than likely look at the first-timers’ workout results, or even their pedigrees, because that’s all we have to go on. Pedigrees don’t seem to help much with the two-year-olds because of the short distances of the MSWs. (Turf first-timers usually go longer, which makes a peek at the pedigrees beneficial to a certain degree.)
So, is there anything to base our handicapping decisions upon when there’s little in the past performances? Maybe there is, if you want to do a bit of work. Look at the trainers’ comments after their colt’s races, whether the race is as a two-year-old, or three-year-old. Often, coverage of the stakes held this time of year will have comments from many of the trainers, and not just the trainer of the winner.
With that suggestion, we go forth on the Derby Trail!
January 2, 2025: Happy Birthday Horses!
The Two-Year-Old crop has just turned Three on New Year's Day, as all horses have their birthday on the first day of the year. However, age doesn't seem to matter in some cases. Have you noticed the annual Kentucky Derby points hoopla is starting earlier, and earlier. It’s gotten to the point where the two-year-old restricted stakes run in the prior year are touted to be crucial to our Derby handicapping. Really?
Come on, it’s just one race on a calendar filled with graded stakes restricted to the three-year-olds. Does the media do this hype to keep current race fans interested? If so, maybe someone should tell them that we are interested in all stakes racing, and not just one race called the Kentucky Derby.
Now, if they are doing it because the race garners many non-race fans watching it. So, is the aim to make race fans out of these non-race fans? If so, maybe someone should ask them when was the last time they saw a story about horse racing receiving national attention? If there was such a story, then it probably was some negative one about the sport so many seem to love to hate.
Race fans will watch the graded stakes for both the two-year-olds and the three-year-olds, because it’s what we do, and regardless of the racing media hype, as encouraged by CDI and it’s silly points system.