April 18, 2024: A Piece or the Whole Pie?



We’ve been yapping about the same thing all year long it seems, specifically, the hype surrounding the Kentucky Derby, one race. Now that the so-called prep races are over, can we just concentrate on the Kentucky Derby? In a word, no.

Look at all the stakes races filling the weekend cards all over the country. What do we know about the stars of the other divisions of the sport? Probably not as much as we know about the field for the Kentucky Derby.

So, why spend all of our precious handicapping time on just one race? It’s a field of twenty horses. Is your devotion just going to lead to the favorites, or are you just going to spend your wad betting them all because you can’t make up your mind?

Seriously, how about handicapping what typically is a great undercard of stakes races on Kentucky Derby day, or the Kentucky Oaks card the day before? Find out who the stars are in the other divisions. When the three-year-olds aren’t front and center, we’re likely to have some incredible races to still handicap, so, it will be helpful to know as many stars as possible.

Why settle on a fraction, when there’s a whole for us.

April 4. 2024: What Derby Are We Betting?



The last of the Derbies before the Kentucky Derby next month are this weekend. Hopefully, you won’t fall into the same trap we tend to do every year. Instead, of handicapping these Derbies called Kentucky Derby preps, as if you are handicapping the actual Kentucky Derby, just handicap the races as they stand.

Here’s what we mean: you’ll see entries that are no-doubt Kentucky Derby runners in the fields of the Santa Anita Derby; the Bluegrass Stakes, and the Wood. That doesn’t mean we ignore the rest of their competitors. To do so results in wagering on the favorites because of their Kentucky Derby prospects, and who wants to bet chalk when we have competitive races.

So, we tell ourselves to look for some long-shots, with the thinking that losing on a long-shot is better than making a nickel on the dollar by betting the favorites. If you can’t get around the favorites no matter how hard you try, then at least do a multi-leg wager surrounding the favorite in the feature race with long-shots in the other races. These are great races on their own, so, let’s not put the proverbial cart before the horse!

March 28,  2024: The "Real" Reason

While most of U.S. race fans will be focusing on the Florida and Arkansas Derbies this weekend, we won’t forget about the Dubai World Cup also being held Saturday. That race will feature a world-class field, as it typically does, but it also has the return of Senor Buscador.

Remember him? He was the horse who won the world’s richest race, the Saudi Cup. Never having won a Grade 1, the victory was quite a surprise to the international racing community. Our article after the race gave credit to his jockey, Junior Alvarado. Since Junior took the reins, the horse showed improvement with each race, but not enough to get anywhere close to favoritism.

What had us pondering was why the connections kept racing him at the highest levels of the sport without any performances to prove he belong there? We summed it up to both jockey and connections having faith in the horse.

However, thanks to friend and fellow race fan, Jim, we have found the “real” reason as to why the connections were so persistent, or as we said, “never lost heart”. Here’s what Jim told us:

“NEVER LOST HEART??? They sold him down the river. Peacock gave up a percentage of a $20 million purse for cash upfront for both the Saudi race as well as the upcoming Dubai contest. Plus, the horse ran in the Rent-a-Sheik's colors and Peacock was denied access to the winner's circle?

NEVER LOST HEART??? They never thought he could win so they cashed-out in advance of the races. They did it for the money, not for the horse. This was the worst hedge since Lehman Brothers.”

Jim, we appreciate your passion, and can only hope you forgive us our naivety. Seeing the joy on Junior’s face led us astray. With all the negative news coming out of the sport, the performance seemed to strike a positive note. Alas, it appears otherwise.

March 21, 2024: The "Real" Derby

It’s officially Derby season. No, we aren’t talking about those Kentucky Derby points getting races that we have been inundated with since last year. We are referring of course to the stakes races that start with the Louisiana Derby this Saturday, and end in the fall.

The word “Derby” in a race title goes back centuries ago in England around 1780, when Edward Smith-Stanley and Sir Charles Bunbury used a coin toss to decide whose name would apply to a race for three-year-olds they were having. Edward Smith-Stanley won, and since he was the Earl of Derby, the race was henceforth known as “The Derby”. This race is still run, but under the name, the Epsom Derby.

So, in this country, we have all these races restricted to three-year-olds with name having Derby in it. After the Louisiana Derby, there’s the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby. All of those are Grade 1 stakes. Of Course, some of them aren’t called Derbies. There are the Preakness and Belmont of course. Later in the year, we have the Travers and Haskell.

There are some other lesser-known Derbies, like the Iowa Derby and Ohio Derby too. Some aren’t even stakes because they are held at smaller, regional tracks. Still, it’s neat to see these races held with great fanfare for the race fans there.

So, that’s why we are calling it “Derby Season”. Maybe, instead of looking at the ones leading up to the Kentucky Derby as merely preps for that race, we should just enjoy them for what they are, fun races on the calendar.

March 14, 2024: Top of the Crop

Do you follow any of those “Derby Dozen” lists? We don’t see the point for doing them for just one race, so, we came up with our own list of sorts. We call it the Top-of-the-Crop.

With so many BIG races for the three-year-old crop, why just concentrate on the Kentucky Derby? We found our list to be helpful keeping track of the best performances to date. Given how little these horses race, it’s nice to be reminded of just what races they ran in. Remember when Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes last year? We didn’t see him again until the Travers in August. In between, we had some other races restricted to the crop. Now, some of these races might not have been Grade 1’s, but they were graded.

Also, some of the runners later in the year might not have run earlier in the year. Arrogate is a good example of one of those types. Another reason we do such a list is because after the Kentucky Derby, many of the runners go off to specialties, like turf races, or sprints.

Overall, it’s fun way to get to learn just who these three-year-olds are, and if their names show up in entries for a race, we can just see if they made the list!

March 7, 2923: Competitve Fields?

We found two of the three, three-year-old stakes from last Saturday drawing our interest. The first was the Fountain of Youth, which at first glance had a competitive field with Dornoch, Locked, Speak Easy, and Victory Avenue. However, come race time, the last three were found to be scratched leaving Dornoch in a runaway. How disappointing.

The second stakes we were looking forward to was the San Felipe at Santa Anita. It was a small field, but it featured Nysos. We wanted to see if he could repeat his last race performance. However, he was scratched leaving a four-horse field. Again, how disappointing.

We did manage to salvage some race watching of a competitive field of three-year-olds, when viewing the Gotham Stakes. Sure, a top-of-the-crop horse hasn’t won this race in who knows how long. However, when we looked over the field, boy, were we surprised. Cox had three entered. Clement had two. The west coast-based O’Neill sent one. Pletcher and Rice had one each. So, there was a 12-horse field after scratches. A field that did not disappoint as Joel Rosario brought home Deterministic at decent odds for the Clement barn.

The moral of this story? Don’t overlook a three-year-old stakes just because the winner may not go on to get an Eclipse Award.

February 29, 2023: Savoring the Moment

Perhaps the best story in horse racing in who knows how long happened Saturday. Senor Buscador showed the entire planet just how much heart matters, especially when the connections never lost heart in him.

Just look at his past performances. Sure, he finished second to National Treasure in the Pegasus in January. However, he never won a Grade 1. So, why would the connections keep running him in races like the Breeders’ Cup?

It probably makes no sense to the upper echelon in racing. It doesn’t matter what they think. It doesn’t matter to the racing media either, who perceive the effort as a fluke. Sure, go ahead and dismiss the little guys.

Race fans had to enjoy it though. How often do we witness such a thing? Never? So, how did it happen? One reason might be the fact his jockey Junior Alvarado rode the horse in the past two starts. He also worked him. To hear Junior tell it, he wanted to find out what the horse wanted, and that made all the difference.

We also enjoyed seeing his pedigree. Of course, A.P. Indy in a pedigree is always a plus, but for us, it was seeing the name Fappiano. We have been talking forever about the influence of Fappiano in distance champions, and there he was, the father of Senor Buscador’s Dam.

If he never wins another race, so what? He gave us a much-needed moment.

February 22, 2024: Cha-Cha-Cha-Changes

How often in your handicapping do you pay attention to changes? Well, if you overlooked the fact that trainer Chad Brown put blinkers on Sierra Leone for his 2023 debut in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds last Saturday, you missed a nice payout.

Listening to jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, the equipment change seemed to make all the difference. Given the fact that the colt had other obstacles, such as, not having raced since the Remsen in the fall, and having to negotiate a very sloppy course coming from behind, the performance was indeed impressive. It is risky to pick a horse, especially a lightly raced three-year-old based on an equipment change, but we need every piece of information to make a good decision.

Many times, it isn’t an equipment change that does the trick. It could be a distance change, or a surface change. The example of a surface change making all the difference in a horse’s performance is the great Cigar. He wasn’t so great when running on turf, so, when trainer Bill Mott moved him to the dirt, well, the streak began and the rest is history as they say.

So, our tip this week is to watch for changes. Specifically, are the changes being made as a fishing expedition, or are they the result of something noted in a previous race?

February 15, 2024: There's no pouting in horse racing!

The poor racing media, unlike other sports, the media can’t interview the athletes. What happens then? The media go to the human connections of the equine athlete.

This reliance on the connections has resulted in a lack of focus on the main issue concerning race fans, specifically, the safety of the equine athletes. A perfect example of the misguided focus was addressed in a Paulick Report article this past week. It seems the racing media is upset. The Eclipse Award of Merit wasn’t made in a unanimous decision.

Thankfully, the article included a link to 2021 report on how the Eclipse Awards are determined. You guessed it. The majority of voters are from the racing media. Now you know why every December, this group’s focus is how they are going to vote. As the article states:

“Humans are listed under their category in various ways, showing leaders by wins, by earnings, and by graded winners. Complicating matters in the owner and breeder categories is the popularity of partnerships in modern racing. Earnings and wins are shown by entity according to the way they appear in the racing program, not per individual.”

Is that why the results of the voting every year seem to fall in line with those humans at the top of the leaderboards? Probably. What we would like to know is why those atop any leaderboard for suspensions during the year aren’t tossed out of consideration?

Why should race fans care about the juvenile pouting of the racing media then? We shouldn’t. However, it makes us wonder how they can assume such self-importance? Who is the audience their pandering is directed to? It certainly isn’t the lowly race fan. 

February 8, 2024: Our Favorite Favorites

Since the beginning of the year, we have been pounding away at how to wager on favorites. The past two weekends of stakes racing provided excellent examples of why we don’t like heavy favorites in any wagers.

Two weeks ago, National Treasure won the purse-rich Pegasus World Cup. Sure, he was favored, but paid a nice $7.20. Now, that’s a payoff we can live with, especially when making multi-race wagers.  Last weekend, we had several races for the three-year-olds. We take an interest in these races, not because of all the hype that they are “Derby Preps”, but we want to learn about the lightly raced crop for all the Grade 1s during the year for them.

These age-specific races lend themselves to nice payouts. In the Southwest, winner, Mystik Dan paid $24.80 and in the Holy Bull, Hades paid $20.40. Both race results show why it just doesn’t pay to back the heavy favorites.

The three-year-old winner that impressed us most was Nysos in the Bob Lewis Stakes. The irony is that with all the hype for one race in the coming months, the Kentucky Derby, the horse can not be entered because of the ban placed by CDI on trainer Bob Baffert. Does this matter? No, it doesn’t, because of the opportunities available to the connections to run the horse in other high-profile races throughout the year. 

January 15, 2024: When left with only palm trees

With many tracks closed because of weather this past weekend, we looked to those having palm trees to do our handicapping. Looking over the Gulfstream card before the race day, we knew there would be heavy favorites in each race because of Irad Ortiz Jr. So, even a Pick 3 using those favorites proved to be unprofitable until the very last race.

The last Pick 3 of races 8 through 10 paid $314.10. How? Why? Well, Ortiz did win the first leg, but shockingly, he wasn’t on the heavy favorite. Still the horse went off at lower odds than if some other rider was aboard. The next leg had a $16.20 winner, but it was the final race on the card that delivered a $87.80 winner.

So, would you have been better off playing a Daily Double with the last two races, or just making win bets on anything other than favorites? We can’t answer that question because it takes luck, and luck can’t be determined.

The problem every week with handicapping the Gulfstream card is Ortiz. When he wins, there’s no profit to be made because he’s on the heavy favorite. Sure, you could bet hundreds on his favorites, but do you want to risk that much for a bad ROI?

We looked at the Santa Anita card as well. Yes, they have palm trees too. Again, the highest price winner was in the last race paying $24. Does this result, in conjunction with the Gulfstream last race result, mean we should only play the final race on any card? Try and watch an entire race card without betting until the final race.

The problem with Santa Anita racing right now is the small fields for dirt races. Having small fields diminishes our opportunities for nice ROIs. So, we can concentrate on the turf racing there, but only if the fields are more than seven horses.

Our quest to find worthy favorites to use in constructing wagers is an ongoing process, but the knowledge we gain every week will prove helpful.

January 18, 2024: What if?

We know what you’re thinking. If you can have a nice payout playing a daily double using a favorite in the second leg like we did last week, what can happen if you play a Pick 3? To answer this question, we looked over the results from Gulfstream Park’s Saturday card. Why that card? Well, many favorites ran in each race, and here’s an example of what those favorites winning had on the Pick 3 outcomes:

If you played the first Pick 3 on the card, which started in Race 1 and ended in Race 3, you would have a $34.85 payout. That sequence included a favorite winning, so, the result wasn’t too bad. The next several Pick 3s had two favorites winning legs, so, the payouts were in the single digits. However, the Pick 3 starting in Race 7 and ending in Race 9 had no favorites coming in, so, the payout was $88.05.

We want to use a favorite to our advantage, and not base our wager on luck like you would have needed for that Pick 3, unless you played them all in each leg, which is never an option. Looking at the two Pick 3s surrounding the Race 7 through Race 9, you’d find favorites in one leg of those Pick 3s, but you would have payouts of $40 and change.

Again, how much profit you would have made depended solely on how many picks you made in each leg, and therein lies the rub. What it all means is that you have to look over an entire card, not only to find worthy favorites, but not playing many horses in the other legs. It seems like a lot of work, but the reward can be worth it.

January 11, 2024: Those Nasty Favorites



Our second handicapping tip of the year follows along with our tip from last week, but instead of avoiding the favorite, we have an idea of using the favorite, and still make a nice profit. It all has to do with bet type.

The feature race on the Santa Anita card Saturday was the San Vincente Stakes. Bob Baffert trainee, Muth was the heavy favorite in a small field. So, we stayed away and looked through the card at other opportunities where we could use a favorite. We hit upon Big City Lights, who was co-favored in a five-horse field in Race 5.

We realized that with such a small field using a bet type offered for just that race wouldn’t be worth it. So, we looked at the race before it. It was an MSW with a nice field. By playing a Daily Double using several of these maiden runners and taking Big City Lights in the next race, there was a better chance of making a profit that wasn’t just pocket change.

Our “luck” held when a $38 winner came in for the first leg of our double. You really want to go with the race prior to the one your favorite is runner in because it is the amount of your bet on the favorite in the next race. So, when the favorite came in, the Daily Double paid $98.

However, Santa Anita has a $2 minimum bet on Daily Doubles. This minimum eats our profit, but we’ll still take the $58 we cleared on the bet, a bet that included a favorite.

January 4, 2024: Getting Ready for the New Year

Ready for our first handicapping tip of the new year? It’s a really simple one, so, why is it so difficult to implement, you may ask?

The reason is we tend to stick to the same old picks (favorites) and the same old bet types. The result is that your only making sixty cents on the dollar. Why bother?

Here’s what we suggest, go with your gut. That’s right, if some middle-odds horse, or long shot catches your eye as you peruse the past performances, go with it. It could be something subtle, like the horse does well at that particular track. Maybe the horse was claimed by a barn that noticed something that can be changed with the equine making it successful.

These little nuances are worth checking out, so, give it a try. When handicapping a race card, skip the favorite, even if you are drawn to the second favorite, at least it’s not “the” favorite.

This is the perfect time of year to get out of your handicapping rut. The BIG race days will soon be upon us, and you want to get out of the rut you may be in.